Queensland Property Market Update: Winter 2026, and Buyers Are Back in Control
A year ago, our winter market update was titled “Winter 2025 Defies Seasonal Trends”. Brisbane was red-hot: multiple offers were common, buyers were waiving conditions, and prices kept climbing through the cold months. Winter 2026 told a very different story.
After four interest rate rises and major tax changes in the 2026 Federal Budget, the Queensland property market turned this winter. Brisbane values peaked in May and have fallen every month since, listings have surged and auction clearance rates have collapsed. For the first time in years, buyers are back in control. Here is what happened, why, and what it means for buyers, sellers and investors.
Published October 2026, replacing our Winter 2025 update. Figures are the latest available at the time of writing and are revised regularly by data providers. General information only, not financial advice.
Winter 2026 at a glance
| Indicator | Brisbane, winter to early spring 2026 |
| Home values | Peaked in May 2026; down about 1.2% in July, 1.6% in August and 1.5% in September (Cotality, revised figures) |
| Change from the peak | About 5.4% lower by the end of September |
| Change over 12 months | Still about 5.9% higher than September 2025 |
| Median dwelling value | About $1,048,880 (September 2026) |
| Listings | About 60% more homes for sale than a year earlier |
| Auction clearance rates | About 35% in late June (51% a year earlier); around 21% in early October |
| RBA cash rate | 4.35% through winter; raised to 4.60% on 29 September |
| Rental vacancy, Greater Brisbane | About 0.8% (REIQ, June quarter 2026) |
| Rents | Brisbane house rents up about 6.7% a year (mid-2026) |
Why the market turned this winter
1. Four interest rate rises
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate in February, March and May 2026, and again in September, lifting it from 3.60% at the start of the year to 4.60%. Each rise reduced how much buyers could borrow, because lenders test loans at about 3 percentage points above the actual rate. With trimmed mean inflation still at 3.6%, the bank has signalled it may go further.
2. The 2026 Federal Budget
The May Budget announced limits on negative gearing for established homes bought after 12 May 2026 and the replacement of the 50% capital gains tax discount from July 2027. Investor demand for established houses softened quickly. Our explainer on the 2026 negative gearing and CGT changes covers the details.
3. An affordability ceiling
Brisbane values grew by around 18% in the year to May 2026, the strongest run of any capital. In our Winter 2025 update we forecast growth of 10–15% for properties under $2 million; the market went further. Prices simply ran ahead of what many buyers could afford once rates started rising.
4. A wave of new listings
As sentiment shifted, more owners listed, including investors reassessing their portfolios. More stock and fewer active buyers meant homes took longer to sell and more auctions were passed in.
It is easy to read headlines about falling prices and assume the whole market has weakened. The fundamentals that drove South East Queensland’s growth are still in place:
- Rentals are extremely tight. Vacancy rates in the June quarter of 2026 were about 0.8% in Greater Brisbane, 0.7% in Ipswich and Moreton Bay, and 0.8% in Logan, all far below the REIQ’s healthy range of 2.6–3.5%.
- Rents are still rising, by around 6–7% a year for Brisbane houses in mid-2026.
- Population growth continues. Queensland grew by about 1.7% in the year to September 2025, with a net gain of around 19,000 people from interstate.
- Supply remains short. Construction costs and labour shortages continue to hold back new homes; see our analysis of Australia’s housing pipeline to 2029.
Those factors are why we expect falls to be more moderate in Brisbane than in markets with plenty of vacant homes, but nobody can rule out further declines while rates are rising.
Houses and units fell broadly in step over winter and in September, but on an annual basis units have held up better. In September 2026, Brisbane house values were about 5.3% higher than a year earlier, while unit values were about 8.5% higher. Units remain the more affordable entry point, which has kept demand from first home buyers and downsizers relatively steady.
- Inflation data: the September quarter Consumer Price Index will strongly influence the Reserve Bank’s next move.
- The RBA’s 3 November decision and its updated Statement on Monetary Policy.
- Listings: spring usually brings more stock; if buyers stay cautious, that could add to downward pressure on prices.
- Auction clearance rates: a rise back above 50% would be an early sign the market is stabilising.
- Rents and vacancy: if rents keep rising, investors may return as yields improve.
| Market feature | Winter 2025 | Winter 2026 |
| Prices | Rising month after month | Falling month after month since May |
| Interest rates | Being cut | Being raised |
| Competition | Multiple offers, conditions waived | Fewer buyers, conditions back on the table |
| Auctions | Strong clearance rates | Clearance rates often below 40% |
| Seller disclosure | Form 2 just introduced (1 August 2025) | Form 2 now standard practice |
| Who has the upper hand | Sellers | Prepared buyers |
One year on, Queensland’s seller disclosure regime has settled in well. Buyers now receive the Form 2 statement and certificates before signing, which makes due diligence faster and gives buyers more confidence to act in a softer market.
- Negotiate. Sellers are more flexible on price, deposit, settlement timing and conditions than at any time in the past three years.
- Keep your protections. Finance and building-and-pest conditions are achievable again. Do not waive them without good reason.
- Watch passed-in auctions. Many good homes are now negotiated after the auction. See our 2026 guide to buying at auction.
- Buy quality. In a falling market, well-located homes with broad appeal hold their value best and recover first.
- Keep a buffer. Another rate rise is possible. Make sure your budget can absorb it. Our guide to interest rates in 2026 explains how.
For first home buyers, winter 2026 brought a mix of good and bad news. Higher interest rates have reduced borrowing power, but prices have eased, competition has thinned, and government support is generous: the 5% Deposit Scheme now has no income caps, Help to Buy offers shared equity with a 2% deposit, and Queensland’s $30,000 grant and transfer duty exemption apply to new homes. First home buyers who were repeatedly outbid in 2025 may now find much more room to negotiate. Our first home buyer guide for 2026 explains how to prepare.
Sellers need realistic pricing. Homes priced on last autumn’s peak results are sitting on the market, while well-presented homes priced on current evidence are still selling. If you need to sell and buy, consider selling first or negotiating a longer settlement. Our guide to buying and selling at the same time covers the options.
For investors, 2026 is a year to reassess rather than retreat. Yields are improving as rents rise and prices ease, and vacancy remains very low. But the tax changes favour new builds for negative gearing, and higher rates increase holding costs. Focus on cash flow, quality and long-term fundamentals. Our article on yield-focused property selection is a good starting point.
The Reserve Bank’s next decision on 3 November 2026 is the key short-term event; economists are split between another rise and a pause. Bank forecasts made earlier in the year, many of which predicted continued growth, are being revised. The most likely path is a period of further modest falls and slower sales while rates stay high, followed by stabilisation once inflation is under control. Rental tightness and population growth should limit the downside.
As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and markets vary suburb by suburb. Our 2026 update on Brisbane home values explains why we focus on time in the market rather than timing it.
This is not the first time Brisbane prices have gone backwards. Values fell in the early 2010s after the global financial crisis and the 2011 floods, were flat for long stretches between 2017 and 2019, and dipped again when rates rose in 2022. Each time, well-located homes bought for the long term recovered and went on to new highs, while buyers who over-borrowed or bought poor-quality stock had a much harder time. The lesson is consistent: buy quality, borrow sensibly, and give yourself time.
- Test the cash flow at an interest rate at least 1% above today’s.
- Check how the 2026 negative gearing and CGT changes would affect your purchase.
- Favour properties with strong owner-occupier appeal, which hold value best.
- Look at rental demand street by street: vacancy is low, but not every property rents equally well.
- Use the softer market to negotiate on price and conditions.
- Keep a cash buffer of several months of holding costs.
- Get fresh pre-approval at today’s rates.
- Define your brief clearly so you can act decisively when the right home appears.
- Research recent sales, not asking prices, and know what each home is really worth.
- Look off-market as well as on-market: see our guide to on-market, pre-market and off-market property.
- Negotiate firmly but fairly. Our guide on how to deal with selling agents explains how.
- Think long term. Buy a property you would be happy to hold through the cycle.
We are inspecting, bidding and negotiating across Greater Brisbane, Ipswich, Logan, the Redlands, Moreton Bay and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts every week. That on-the-ground view is what lets us tell a genuine opportunity from a falling knife. If you are thinking of buying this spring or summer, contact IPS Buyer’s Agents or learn more about our buyer’s agent services.
- Cotality: Australian housing values down for sixth straight month (September 2026)
- Real Estate Business: Brisbane property market update, September 2026
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Monetary Policy Decision, 29 September 2026
- ABC News: Buyers back in the driver’s seat as the property market slows in South East Queensland
- ABC News: Property auction clearance rates (July 2026)
- Leeson Valuers: REIQ vacancy rates, June quarter 2026
- Smart Property Investment: Brisbane property market update, July 2026
- Queensland Government Statistician’s Office: Population growth, Queensland, September quarter 2025
What happened to the Brisbane property market in winter 2026?
Values peaked in May 2026 and fell each month through winter and into September, ending about 5.4% below the peak, while listings rose about 60% and auction clearance rates fell sharply.
Why are Brisbane house prices falling?
Four interest rate rises in 2026, the Federal Budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, and an affordability ceiling after very strong growth have reduced buyer demand.
Are rents still rising in Brisbane?
Yes. Brisbane house rents were rising about 6.7% a year in mid-2026, and Greater Brisbane’s vacancy rate was about 0.8% in the June quarter.
Is 2026 a buyer’s market in Brisbane?
In many suburbs, yes. Buyers have more choice, more time and more room to negotiate on price and conditions than at any time in the past few years.
What is the outlook for the Brisbane property market?
The Reserve Bank’s next decisions are the key short-term factor. Further modest falls are possible while rates stay high, but tight rentals and population growth should limit the downside.
How many interest rate rises were there in 2026?
Four: the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate in February, March, May and September 2026, taking it from 3.60% to 4.60%.