Why Brisbane Home Values Stayed Strong Despite Higher Interest Rates, and What Has Changed in 2026
By Tim AllenBuyer’s Agent and Director, IPS Buyer’s Agents
When we first wrote this article in October 2023, interest rates had just climbed at the fastest pace in a generation, yet Brisbane home values kept rising. Many buyers sat on the sidelines waiting for a crash that never came. Three years on, the question is back with a new twist: the Reserve Bank has raised rates four times in 2026, and Brisbane values have finally started to ease.
This update looks at why home values stayed strong despite higher interest rates, what has changed in the Brisbane property market in 2026, and what it means if you are thinking of buying now.
First published October 2023 and fully updated October 2026. Figures are the latest available at the time of writing; markets move, so check current data before you act.
Why home values stayed strong when rates first rose
Between May 2022 and November 2023 the cash rate rose from 0.10% to 4.35%. Conventional wisdom said prices had to fall, and in some cities they briefly did. In Brisbane and most of South East Queensland, they held firm and then kept climbing. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) pointed to three reasons at the time, and each one proved important:
- Population growth came back strongly. Overseas and interstate migration rebounded after the pandemic, and Queensland was one of the biggest winners. More people means more households needing somewhere to live.
- Rental markets were extremely tight. With vacancy rates near record lows and rents rising quickly, many renters decided that buying made more sense than paying higher rent.
- Cash and high-equity buyers stayed active. Downsizers, interstate movers selling in Sydney and Melbourne, and investors with existing equity were far less affected by rate rises than first home buyers.
Underneath all three sat a simple supply problem: South East Queensland was not building enough homes to keep up with demand. That shortfall is still the single most important fact in the Brisbane property market.
What happened next: 2024 to May 2026
The buyers who waited for prices to fall in 2023 generally regretted it. Brisbane recorded strong growth through 2024, and when the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate three times in 2025 (taking it to 3.60%), borrowing capacity improved and demand accelerated again. By May 2026, Brisbane dwelling values were growing at around 18% a year, one of the strongest runs of any capital city.
That is the core lesson from the original article: trying to time the market is notoriously difficult. The people who did best were those who bought a well-chosen property when their finances allowed it, rather than waiting for the perfect moment.
2026 has brought the first real test of that resilience since 2022. Inflation proved stickier than expected, and the Reserve Bank responded by lifting the cash rate in February, March, May and September 2026, taking it to 4.60%, the highest level in about 15 years. Together with the 2026 Federal Budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, that has cooled the market quickly.
| Brisbane indicator (2026) | Latest reading |
| RBA cash rate | 4.60% (raised 29 September 2026; four rises in 2026) |
| Dwelling values, September 2026 | Down 1.5% for the month and 4.7% for the quarter |
| Change from the May 2026 peak | About 5.4% lower |
| Change over the past 12 months | Still about 5.9% higher |
| Median dwelling value | About $1,048,880 |
| Listings for sale | Around 60% higher than a year earlier |
| Auction clearance rates | Around 20–40% through winter and early spring, well down on 2025 |
| Rental vacancy, Greater Brisbane (June quarter 2026) | About 0.8% |
So yes, Brisbane home values are now falling. But context matters. After a rise of roughly 18% in the year to May, a fall of around 5% leaves most owners well ahead of where they were a year or two ago, and values are still higher than in September 2025.
Higher interest rates reduce how much people can borrow, and that is what is pulling prices back in 2026. But the forces that kept values strong in 2023 have not disappeared:
- Rentals are still scarce. Greater Brisbane’s vacancy rate was about 0.8% in the June quarter of 2026, far below the 2.6–3.5% range the REIQ considers healthy. Brisbane house rents were still rising by around 6–7% a year in mid-2026.
- People keep moving here. Queensland’s population grew by about 1.7% in the year to September 2025, including a net gain of around 19,000 people from other states.
- We are still not building enough. Construction costs, labour shortages and approval times continue to hold back new supply. Our look at Australia’s housing pipeline to 2029 explains why.
When rental demand is this strong and new supply is this constrained, price falls tend to be shallower and shorter than headlines suggest. That does not guarantee prices will rise again soon, but it does mean a deep, lasting crash is less likely than in markets with plenty of empty homes. For more on the rental side, see what the vacancy data is telling buyers in 2026.
Our view has not changed since 2023: time in the market usually beats timing the market. Property is a long-term asset with high entry and exit costs (stamp duty, legal fees, agent fees and moving costs), so the holding period matters far more than the exact month you buy.
Some investors follow the idea of an 18-year property cycle, sometimes called the 18.6-year land cycle, in which periods of strong growth are followed by slowdowns and corrections. Nobody can predict cycles precisely, and we treat the theory as a useful reminder rather than a forecast. Its main lesson is sensible: buy for the long term, keep a buffer, and avoid over-borrowing at the top of a boom.
A softer market can actually be the better time to buy, as long as your finances are secure. In 2026, buyers have more choice, more time to do due diligence, and more room to negotiate on price and conditions than at any point in the past few years.
- Use your negotiating power. With listings up sharply and fewer competing buyers, building and pest and finance conditions are back on the table. Our guide on how to deal with selling agents explains how to use that leverage without losing the deal.
- Stress-test your repayments. Lenders already assess loans at about 3 percentage points above the actual rate. Make sure you can comfortably handle another rise or two, and keep a cash buffer.
- Be selective. In a falling market, quality holds up best. Homes with good land size, sound construction and strong owner-occupier appeal tend to recover first; poorly located or oversupplied stock can keep falling.
- Look beyond the portals. Many motivated sellers now test the market quietly. Our article on on-market, pre-market and off-market property explains how those deals work.
- Understand the tax changes. If you are investing, read our explainer on the 2026 negative gearing and CGT changes before choosing between new and established property.
Brisbane’s turn has been sharper than most. After leading the capital cities for growth through 2025 and early 2026, it recorded the largest monthly fall of any capital in September 2026. That is typical of markets that rise fastest: when borrowing capacity tightens, the steepest recent gains are the first to be tested.
It also helps explain why the falls are not yet deeper. Brisbane entered 2026 with lower vacancy rates and stronger population growth than most capitals, so rental demand and owner-occupier demand are cushioning the decline.
In September 2026, Brisbane house values fell 1.5% for the month, and their annual growth slowed from about 10% to about 5%. Units have held up better on an annual basis, still up around 8.5% over the year. Units have been the more affordable option through the boom, which kept demand strong as house prices stretched budgets.
For buyers, the takeaway is to compare the specific segment you want to buy in, rather than relying on headline city-wide figures. A four-bedroom house in a family suburb and a two-bedroom unit near the CBD can be in very different markets at the same time.
Not every property falls equally when the market cools. In our experience, the homes that hold their value best share a few traits:
- Strong land content: a good-sized block in an established suburb, rather than a small lot in an estate with plenty of competing supply.
- Owner-occupier appeal: practical layouts, good natural light, quiet streets and easy access to schools, shops and transport.
- Scarcity: character homes, elevated blocks with views, or properties in tightly held pockets.
- Sound construction: homes without major building or pest issues, and outside high flood-risk areas.
Properties that lack these qualities tend to fall further and take longer to recover. Our guide to seven overlooked aspects that drive owner-occupier appeal goes into more detail.
If you are selling in 2026, price on current evidence, not on the peak results of last autumn. Homes priced realistically and presented well are still selling, while those priced on yesterday’s market are sitting unsold and often end up achieving less after several price drops. If you are selling and buying, the good news is that the market you buy in has softened too, so the gap between the two may be smaller than you think.
A changing market rewards buyers who have accurate, local information. As a buyer’s agent in Brisbane and South East Queensland, we track sales, listings and price changes suburb by suburb every week, so we can tell the difference between a genuine bargain and a property that is cheap for a reason. We negotiate on your behalf, coordinate your finance with trusted brokers, and help you buy with confidence rather than fear.
If you are wondering whether now is the right time to buy, talk to us about your plans. We will give you an honest view of the market in the suburbs you are considering.
- Reserve Bank of Australia: Monetary Policy Decision, 29 September 2026
- Cotality: Australian housing values down for sixth straight month (September 2026)
- Real Estate Business: Brisbane property market update, September 2026
- ABC News: Buyers back in the driver’s seat as the property market slows in South East Queensland
- Leeson Valuers: REIQ vacancy rates, June quarter 2026
- Queensland Government Statistician’s Office: Population growth, Queensland, September quarter 2025
Are Brisbane house prices falling in 2026?
Yes, from a high base. Brisbane dwelling values peaked in May 2026 and were about 5.4% lower by the end of September, but they were still around 5.9% higher than a year earlier.
Why did home values stay strong when interest rates first rose?
Strong population growth, very tight rental markets and active cash and high-equity buyers kept demand high, while new housing supply stayed short.
What is the RBA cash rate in 2026?
The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate four times in 2026, in February, March, May and September, taking it to 4.60% on 29 September 2026.
Is now a good time to buy in Brisbane?
For buyers with secure finance and a long-term plan, a softer market brings more choice and more negotiating power. Buy quality, keep a buffer for further rate rises, and avoid overpaying.
Will Brisbane property prices crash?
Nobody can predict prices with certainty. Rental vacancy below 1%, population growth and limited new supply make a deep, lasting crash less likely than in markets with plenty of vacant homes, but further falls are possible while rates are rising.
How much have Brisbane home values fallen from the peak?
By the end of September 2026, Brisbane dwelling values were about 5.4% below their May 2026 peak, according to Cotality, after falls through July, August and September.
What is the median dwelling value in Brisbane?
About $1,048,880 in September 2026, according to Cotality. House values are higher than the all-dwelling median, and unit values lower.