IPS Buyer's Agents
Property InsightsFebruary 4, 2025 · Updated October 15, 2026 · 13 min read

Where Is South East Queensland’s Property Market Heading in 2026?

Tim Allen

By Buyer’s Agent and Director, IPS Buyer’s Agents

Aerial view of the Brisbane CBD and the Brisbane River on a clear day
IPS Buyer’s Agents, 2026 REIQ Awards for Excellence finalist

I have never liked people who claim they can predict the future. Markets surprise us, headlines change quickly and no single chart can tell us the exact month that values will rise or fall.

I still use the 18.6-year land cycle as a way to ask better questions. It helps me look for late-cycle behaviour, debt pressure, supply constraints, buyer confidence and global risks. It does not give me a date for a crash, and it should never replace sound due diligence.

As at October 2026, the national market has moved into a softer phase. South East Queensland has also pulled back from its recent peak, but the data does not support a simple “everything is crashing” story. Brisbane still has population growth, a constrained supply pipeline and a major decade of infrastructure delivery ahead of it.

That is why my view remains balanced: buyers should respect the risks, but they should not ignore the long-term reasons people want to live, work and invest in South East Queensland.

The 18.6-Year Land Cycle Is a Useful Lens

Land-cycle commentators argue that property and credit markets often move in long waves, with a typical cycle lasting about 18.6 years. The pattern is interesting, but it is not a scientific clock. Every period has different interest rates, lending rules, population flows, tax settings, construction capacity and global events.

The value of this lens is not in forecasting one precise turning point. Its value is in avoiding complacency. When prices have risen strongly, buyers should test the numbers harder, keep a buffer and choose an asset with lasting owner-occupier appeal.

18.6-Year Property Cycle Timeline and Current Reading

The table below keeps the original timeline, adds historically defensible mid-cycle events where the earlier version left gaps, corrects dates that did not support a slowdown label and treats the current window as a scenario to watch rather than a promised outcome. Where the historical record does not support a neat cycle match, I have stated the uncertainty rather than force an event into the pattern. Business-cycle durations vary substantially.[10][15]

Peak and correction periodMid-cycle slowdownMajor event or market contextVerified mid-cycle event or contextOctober 2026 reading
1818–18191828–1829†Panic of 1819 and US land-speculation bustA short US trade contraction is sometimes placed here, but the dating is disputed. This is not labelled as a major panic.Historic reference point
1836–18371847–1848Panic of 1837 and a prolonged international depressionBritish commercial and banking crisis in 1847; credit stress followed corn-price speculation and the government authorised additional Bank of England liquidity. European revolutionary upheaval in 1848 was a separate continental shock.[11]Historic reference point
1854–18571866–1867Panic of 1857 financial crisisPanic of 1866 / Overend Gurney crisis. The large London discount house suspended payment on “Black Friday”; the Bank of England supported viable banks and brokers.[12]Historic reference point
1872–18731882–1884Long Depression beginsUS recession from March 1882 to May 1885, including the more locally contained New York Panic of 1884.[10][13]Historic reference point
1890–18911899–1901 (date refined)Australian land boom and bustUS recession from June 1899 to December 1900, followed by a New York-centred panic in 1901. The 1899 start date is more precise.[10][13]Historic reference point
1925–1929May 1937–June 1938 (corrected)Great DepressionA severe US mid-recovery recession. The Second Sino-Japanese War began in 1937 and World War II began in Europe in September 1939, after the recession; neither is presented as its cause.[10][14]Historic reference point
1954–19551960–1961 (corrected)Post-war boom and market adjustmentAustralia’s 1960–61 recession / credit squeeze is the better reference. The RBA described 1962–63 as a recovery period from recession; 1963–64 should not be labelled an official slowdown.[15][16]Historic reference point
1972–19741981–1982Oil crisis and property correctionHigh inflation and tight monetary policy led to the July 1981–November 1982 US recession and Australia’s 1982–83 recession.[10][15]Historic reference point
1989–1992 (date refined)2000–2001Japanese asset-bubble collapse unfolded from the early 1990s.[17]Dot-com bust, US recession from March to November 2001 and the 11 September attacks.[10]Historic reference point
2006–2008September 2019–August 2020Global Financial CrisisRepo-market stress, global rate cuts, COVID-19 lockdowns and stimulusHistoric reference point
2025–2027 (cycle window)2036–2038 (hypothesis)Current period; not a confirmed crash forecastToo far ahead to assessNational values were 3.6% below their March 2026 peak at 31 August 2026. Brisbane values were 2.7% below their May 2026 peak, while still 10.8% higher over the year.[1]

†The 1828–1829 timing remains a tentative historical marker rather than a definitive named recession or panic.

The current row matters because it keeps us honest. Cotality reported that the national Home Value Index fell 0.9% in August 2026 and 3.1% over the preceding three months. Brisbane fell 1.0% in August and 2.7% over the quarter. At the same time, Brisbane values remained 10.8% higher over 12 months, with a median dwelling value of $1,080,142.[1]

This is a correction and a change in buyer conditions. It is not proof that the 18.6-year theory caused the change, or that a severe national crash must follow.

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