Written on 3rd February 2025

I almost didn’t write this blog or share my thoughts on the year ahead. Firstly, I really dislike seeing people predict the future when they have no idea what the year will bring. Secondly, I hope I’m wrong about my outlook because that would give me more time to prepare for the upcoming crash in the property cycle.

I am a firm believer in the hidden property cycle—the 18.6-year land cycle. Over the last 200 years, this cycle has averaged 18.6 years, with the shortest cycle lasting around 17 years and the longest stretching to 23 years. Historical patterns show that these cycles often bring about new political movements or economic booms.

Examples of Historical Cycles:

• 1929 property crash → Great Depression → Rise of Fascism worldwide.
• 1890–1891 crash → Socialist movements, including Vladimir Lenin’s activism.
• 2007–2008 GFC → Reshaped the political and economic landscape globally.

18.6-Year Property Cycle Timeline

Peak & Crash	Mid-Cycle Slowdown	Major Event	Minor/Mid-Cycle Event
1818–1819	1828–1829	Panic of 1819 (US land speculation bust)	–
1836–1837	1847–1848	Panic of 1837, first global depression	–
1854–1857	1866–1867	Panic of 1857, financial crisis	–
1872–1873	1882–1884	1873 Long Depression, global collapse	–
1890–1891	1900–1901	Australian Land Boom & Bust	–
1925–1929	1937–1939	1929 Great Depression	July 1937: The Second Sino-Japanese War begins. Nazi Germany annexes Austria. September 1939: WWII starts.
1954–1955	1963–1964	Post-war boom, stock & property crash	–
1972–1974	1981–1982	Oil Crisis, property correction	Volcker Shock, high interest rates due to high inflation
1988–1989	2000–2001	Japanese Asset Bubble, 1989 crash	Dot-com bubble, 9/11 attack
2006–2008	16th–17th Sep 2019 – Jul/Aug 2020	Global Financial Crisis (GFC)	US/World Repo Crisis, global rate cuts, COVID-19 lockdowns & stimulus
2025–2027 (expected)	2036–2038 (expected)	Likely major correction post-2026 (I feel it may come early in 2025 between Feb to Nov)	Too far out to predict

Australia’s Housing Supply Gap (2013–2023)

(All figures are approximate estimates based on data from the ABS, NHFIC, HIA, and CoreLogic.)

Year	Homes Needed	Homes Built	Shortfall / (Surplus)
2013	190,000–200,000	160,000	(30,000–40,000 shortfall)
2014	190,000–200,000	180,000	(10,000–20,000 shortfall)
2015	190,000–210,000	220,000	(10,000–20,000 surplus)
2016	190,000–210,000	230,000	(20,000–40,000 surplus)
2017	190,000–210,000	220,000	(10,000–20,000 surplus)
2018	190,000–210,000	195,000	Balanced
2019	190,000–210,000	175,000	(15,000–35,000 shortfall)
2020	180,000–200,000	170,000	(10,000–30,000 shortfall) (COVID impact)
2021	190,000–210,000	160,000	(30,000–50,000 shortfall) (COVID supply chain disruptions)
2022	200,000–220,000	150,000	(50,000–70,000 shortfall) (Rising costs, labor shortages)
2023	200,000–220,000	155,000	(45,000–65,000 shortfall) (Supply chain & migration surge)

Australia’s Net Overseas Migration (2013–2023)

Year	Net Overseas Migration (NOM)
2013	235,700
2014	184,000
2015	184,000
2016	207,900
2017	262,500
2018	248,400
2019	239,600
2020	194,400 (Border closures started in March 2020)
2021	-85,000 (More people left than arrived due to COVID-19 border restrictions)
2022	303,700 (Borders reopened; major rebound in migration)
2023	~500,000 (Government estimates; migration surged post-pandemic)

This sharp rebound in migration has exacerbated Australia’s housing supply crisis, as construction has not kept pace with demand.Economic and Market Outlook

I see the change of the system. The system is fully loaded with debt, and in most countries, they won’t be able to pay it back, so they will have to inflate it away. The stock market appears overvalued, with some key indicators:

Company	Date	P/E Ratio	Investment Recovery Time (years)
Tesla	2/02/2025	198.33:1	198.33
Apple	31/01/2025	38.82:1	38.82
Amazon	3/02/2025	49.39:1	49.39
Wesfarmers	1/2025	32.18:1	32.18

These figures show that valuations are extremely high, meaning it could take decades for investors to recover their investment through earnings alone. Disclaimer: I personally like the stock market and own shares in companies I believe in. I DO NOT RECOMEND the above business listed for you to buy. This is NOT financial advice. I DO RECOMEND THAT YOU please consult a FINANCIAL PLANNER to determine what is best for your investment strategy.

Current Property Market Trends

The Australian property market is at an all-time high. The only exception may be Melbourne, where government policies have deterred investors, leading to 20,000 fewer rental properties. Despite these investment properties coming to market. The estimated shortfall is between 150,000 and 230,000 homes nationally.

Meanwhile, net overseas migration remains strong, increasing demand for housing. Australia, despite its vast land size, has only three major cities on the eastern seaboard and one in the west, supplemented by four satellite cities—Gold Coast-Tweed Heads, Newcastle-Maitland, Canberra-Queanbeyan, and Sunshine Coast.

Business and Economic Challenges

• Builders are going bankrupt, including those on government contracts.
• Small businesses—cafés, restaurants, and retail shops—are shutting down.
• Real estate offices are downsizing or closing completely.
• Star Entertainment Group, which owns three casinos (two in QLD and one in NSW), is struggling.

If the economy were strong, would we be seeing these widespread failures?

Will There Be a Property Crash?

I don’t foresee a property market crash, because of under supply of new homes and incress to net overseas migration but I do expect:

• Slower growth rates in property prices.
• A global downturn, which could trigger financial stress.
• Increased government spending to counteract the downturn.

At some point, government debt levels will become unsustainable, and inflation may erode the value of money itself.

Where is the South East Queensland Property Market Headed?

Looking at past cycles, consider Stafford (2008–2012):

• 2008: +9.2%
• 2009: -1.9%
• 2010: +6.7%
• 2011: -5.2%
• 2012: -4.4% Total movement: +4.4% over four years

Cleveland (2008–2012):

• 2008: +11.5%
• 2009: -6.1%
• 2010: +6.8%
• 2011: -12.1%
• 2012: +8% Total movement: +8.1% over four years

By comparison, in 2007:

• Stafford rose 24.1%
• Cleveland rose 9.4%

The Key Takeaway:

• You need a buyer’s agent who understands the full market cycle.
• We are nearing the end of the “Winner’s Curse” phase, where overconfidence can lead to bad investments.
• When the tide goes out, those without the right purchasing strategy may be left exposed.
• A crash may come sooner than expected, but the true economic wreckage is only visible after the dust settles.